The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point

I wasn't around a television Tuesday night so I didn't get a sense at all of how the speeches played or what the media was obsessing over in its coverage of election night. So it was interesting to read this from Poblano on Wednesday:

Last night, Barack Obama clinched a majority of pledged delegates excluding Florida and Michigan, as well as under certain Florida/Michigan scenarios. But, in spite of a big win in Oregon and a well-executed speech in Iowa, the milestone did not quite produce the sense of euphoria and closure that his campaign might have been after. The circumstances of the day -- Hillary Clinton's overwhelming margin of victory in Kentucky, the late hour at which Oregon ballot boxes closed, the subdued tone of the evening necessitated by Senator Kennedy's diagnosis, and some relatively effective pushback from the Clinton campaign on the pledged delegate metric -- conspired to prevent that.

Notice the loaded language..."clinched"..."conspired"...he sounds like he actually thinks a majority of pledged delegates means something concrete as opposed to merely psychological. I mean, the Obama talking point was successful to a point; it got covered by traditional media as though it meant something real and even confused NPR's Michelle Norris who conveniently left off the word "pledged" when describing the delegate milestone Obama would reach Tuesday night. Mara Liasson had to correct her.

Now, I'm not saying the milestone is entirely meaningless, all I'm saying is let's call it what it is: a meme pushed out by the Obama camp to influence superdelegates and the media and to manipulate public perception. I can see how psychologically it would have some power, but let's not pretend the Obama campaign wasn't being manipulative; clearly they were hoping hearing "majority" and "delegates" in the same sentence would confuse people into thinking the race had been won and thus make it so. Alas, it was not meant to be, but good try. It's about time they started playing on that playing field.

Look, the second it became clear that pledged delegates alone were not going to win the nomination for either Obama or Clinton, the use of psychological warfare was fair game; it's superdelegates' jobs to be influenced by things like popular vote, majority of pledged delegates and electability and as far as I'm concerned it's the campaigns' jobs to try to use any argument at their disposal to make the case to them.

What I find remarkable is that the same people who are brazenly spinning this Obama talking point are ridiculing the Clinton campaign for spinning theirs.

Again Poblano.

Yes, [Byron York] really did make this argument about Hillary Clinton and the primaries:

There have been four quarters in the Democratic presidential nomination battle. We're late in the fourth quarter now, and when it's over, Hillary Clinton will likely have won three of the quarters -- and won the most votes overall -- but lost the game.

Mr. York? Mr. York? There's a Mr. Wolfson for you on line four.

I'm not saying York was entirely artful about expressing it, but that argument is no more absurd or off limits than the majority of pledged delegates thing. The problem for Hillary Clinton, though, is that it's just the latest argument that they've advanced that will fail to sway the superdelegates into shifting her way.



Display:


It's a delegate race (2.00 / 4)


by Bee on Thu May 22, 2008 at 06:37:47 AM EST

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

And both the pledged and the popular vote argument are used as a metric to claim popular support as an argument to sway super delegates.

Having a majority of pledged delegates is helpful in the delegate race but for all other uses an arbitrary number.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:38:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (2.00 / 2)

I think the major objection many people have to this election is that the superdelegates, unelected representatives we've decided to send to our convention with votes for whatever reason, could override the wishes of the regular D(d)emocratic process we've chosen to select our nominee.

The popular vote is an entirely illegitimate (especially as Clinton describes it) means to measure support.  The pledged delegate count is the one legitimate measure.

Besides, even with Michigan and Florida completely counted (which won't happen) Hillary needs 71% of the remaining delegates (pledged and super).  Does she really honestly think that 71% of those supers will buy her bull?


by umcpgreg on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:04:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

"The pledged delegate count is the one legitimate measure."

Sez who?


No way. No how. No McCain. . . . . . If you can ship a job to Bangalore India, you can ship a job to Flint Michigan.
by NJ Liberal on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:17:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (1.66 / 3)

Says the rules of picking our nominee. If you don't like it leave the party. Hillary herself said it was all about delegates until she started to fall behind. What is going on here is atrocious and wouldn't be allowed to happen if Barack Obama was a white candidate.  What Hillary is trying to do now is damn sleazy and is being tolerated because the white powers that be are making a black man who has played by the rules once again have to prove himself.


by sweet potato pie on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:25:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (2.00 / 1)

Let's be crystal clear: this has nothing to do with Obama being black, and everything to do with Hillary being Clinton. I would expect her to behave this way regardless of who the opponent was, so let's leave the race card out, shall we?
The Clintons have a long history of being political bulldogs, never quitting even in the face of impossible odds. Her husband tried to redefine sex; I'm not at all surprised Hillary is trying to redefine the rules of this contest.
Honestly, my hat is off to her. She has never given up, even when it was clear she had lost. The party is losing a true warrior in this primary.
John McCain Hates Poor People
by pneuma on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:47:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Good effing riddance. (2.00 / 1)

Cheney's a true warrior too, who's redefined the Vice Presidency and the Constitution.  I'm tired of political warriors.

If she had shown that fighting spirit in Congress, when it came down to the Iraq war, I'd have backed her candidacy from the beginning.

She's a fighter, but for her own political aspirations.


"I'm all for the delegate battle, and now that Obama's campaign is too, I'm all giddy. It's going to be the supers as kingmaker." J.Armstrong 01/19/08
by obscurant on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:32:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Pledge drives often come up short (none / 0)

in fundraising. Peoples circumstances change and pledges disappear.

Its not your 'money' until you get the check and the check clears.


http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Ep isode.aspx?sched=1242
Confused by the 'Bailout' Lies?
Listen to NPR's The Giant Pool of Money
by architek on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:01:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (2.00 / 1)

It has nothing to do with Obama's race.  It has everything to do with Hillary being a former First Lady(and the position the Clinton's have had in the party).  If it had been anyone else in Clinton's shoes, they'd have been shown the door a long time ago.


John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:47:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Same thing with her supporters? (none / 0)

Working class would have been shown the door a long time ago?


http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Ep isode.aspx?sched=1242
Confused by the 'Bailout' Lies?
Listen to NPR's The Giant Pool of Money
by architek on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:09:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Her supporters are not running for (none / 0)

office, so no, they just do not get to have their candidate elected.


by KLRinLA on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:18:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Same thing with her supporters? (none / 0)

I guess you don't remember that the TradMed basically declared McCain the nominee before he had crossed 1150(or whatever the Republican number was) because there was no way that any of the other candidates could reach him .. so they basically ignored Huckabee even though he did win another contest or two .. and he didn't end his campaign right away


John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Thu May 22, 2008 at 02:18:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

The rules of picking our nominee only speak about total delegates. Pledged and supers combined.

There is no mention in the rules what so ever about winning the pledged delegates. none what so ever.

It's as made up as the popular vote total.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:57:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

Made up as the popular vote. So then why do we have pledged delegates then? Oh yeah because that is the metric in which we pick our nominee. Period.


by sweet potato pie on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:05:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You are absolutely wrong about this (none / 0)

The nominee is the candidate with the majority of TOTAL delegates in a vote taken at the convention. Period.

PART of that total is the number of pledged delegates, but it's simply not correct to say that the number of pledged delegates is the only thing that matters. it is not.

Whether the number of pledged delegates or the number of primary votes has any influence over the superdelegates' positions would be entirely up to them. They can choose to vote for whomever they want, based on whatever criteria they choose.

THOSE are the rules.


No way. No how. No McCain. . . . . . If you can ship a job to Bangalore India, you can ship a job to Flint Michigan.
by NJ Liberal on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:40:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You are absolutely wrong about this (none / 0)

You're right, the winner is the person with the majority of total delegates.  The question we've been asking ourselves this whole process though is if we're going to let the will of the people (as represented by elected pledged delegates) be overridden by the will of the party elite.  I don't think it would be wise to do so (and neither do they as they've been coming out strong for Obama for a while now).

But if we're going to talk about legitimate measures of public support, the popular vote has to be considered inferior to the pledged delegate count.  The DNC decided to choose its nominee in 2008 by holding a series of elections and caucuses.  It then decided that each state was allotted a certain number of delegates relative to its population and past Democratic vote.  The delegates would be chosen in these contests and would then vote for the nominee based on the results of the caucuses and primaries.  Those were the rules.  The will of the people would be represented by delegates elected in a series of caucuses and primaries.  That's the way both campaigns set up their operations, chose to campaign and based their strategies on.  That's the way all the states chose to hold their individual contests.  If we had said at the beginning the will of the people would be represented by a popular vote, not a single state ('cept maybe elitist Iowa) would have held a caucus as their voice would matter far less than if they held a primary.  All states would have opened up their contests to as many voters as possible (including Republicans, Germans, aliens) to expand their individual influence.

I'm just saying, if we're going to make rules.  Let's stick by them.  We decided at the beginning that the people's say in the election (albeit that isn't the total say in the election - we do have superdelegates) would be represented by DELEGATES not a pure popular vote total.


by umcpgreg on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:22:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You are absolutely wrong about this (none / 0)

And I don't think anyone (including me) is disagreeing with you. The delegates elected in the state contests will have their say at the convention. Is anyone disputing that?

However, those delegates will not be enough to secure the nomination for either candidate (this also is according to the rules). Therefore, the superdelegates will also have their say. And THEY get to vote however they choose, based on whatever criteria they choose. The Clinton campaign is trying to convince the supers that they should consider her popular support in deciding how they will vote.

Had the primary votes been more decisive, say, with one candidate getting 3/4 of the pledged delegates, we wouldn't be having this conversation. But the fact is that it is split very closely, and the supers wil have to make a choice.

Personally, I hope they choose Clinton, but I will be solidly behind whoever the Democratic nominee should be.


No way. No how. No McCain. . . . . . If you can ship a job to Bangalore India, you can ship a job to Flint Michigan.
by NJ Liberal on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:45:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Historically there have been a LOT of these fights (none / 0)

Sometimes a candidate goes to the convention with lots of delegates, but not enough to win, and someone else walks away with the nomination.

Thats reality, that the way its always been.

its not something new.


http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Ep isode.aspx?sched=1242
Confused by the 'Bailout' Lies?
Listen to NPR's The Giant Pool of Money
by architek on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:27:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Historically there have been a LOT of these fi (none / 0)

Not since we've introduced national campaigns.

It used to be that unpledged delegates made up the vast majority of the convention and that it was sheer impossible to win on first ballot.

I think only Byrd, Kennedy and Inouye might remember how a platform fights actually works.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 02:26:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You guys are both right, I think the remaining (2.00 / 1)

issue is how you calculate "popular vote".  Because the way Hillary calculates it is completely unfair, she takes the meaning severly literal in saying, I am winning in the number of Americans that have voted for me...which is true, but as we know, means not including caucases, no MI votes to Obama, etc.  That is fucking stupid because it doesn'represent the will of the people, therefore, Obama supporters like me get angry when such nonsense is used as a metric.  You cannot use a real popular vote metric since it is impossible to be accurate.

If all states had primaries and no caucases, then Hillary could legitimately use this argument.  SInce that is not the system, it doesn't fly


by KLRinLA on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:29:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You guys are both right, I think the remaining (none / 0)

That's not an issue either. It really doesn't matter who has more votes in the primaries or caucuses. All that matters is for whom the super delegates cast their votes.

They can choose whatever criteria they want. It could be the phase of the moon or whether they got laid that morning. It's entirely up to them.

I would hope that they will make intelligent decisions based on which candidate they think would be successful in defeating McCain in November, but it's entirely up to them.


No way. No how. No McCain. . . . . . If you can ship a job to Bangalore India, you can ship a job to Flint Michigan.
by NJ Liberal on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:52:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah that is true, but if someone is going to use (none / 0)

certain criteria as an argument for themselves, it should be in good-faith and not misleading and HRC's popular vote theory fails both points


by KLRinLA on Thu May 22, 2008 at 01:57:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah that is true, but if someone is going to (none / 0)

I don't think we really need to be worried about the supers being misled by candidate's spin. This is, on all counts, hair splitting.

I'd think (hope) that the supers would be looking at things like the electoral map when they make their decisions.

This is, after all, about winning in November. If it's about anything else, we've all been ripped off.


No way. No how. No McCain. . . . . . If you can ship a job to Bangalore India, you can ship a job to Flint Michigan.
by NJ Liberal on Thu May 22, 2008 at 02:24:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yup and a sure fire way to win in November is (none / 0)

to support the voters decision, and that would be Obama.  This will be a large factor for consideration


by KLRinLA on Thu May 22, 2008 at 03:18:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yup and a sure fire way to win in November is (none / 0)

Sure fire? Maybe, maybe not.

I surely hope there are people running the general campaign who are smarter than I am. But I'm not feeling too comfortable about that.


No way. No how. No McCain. . . . . . If you can ship a job to Bangalore India, you can ship a job to Flint Michigan.
by NJ Liberal on Thu May 22, 2008 at 03:29:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (2.00 / 1)

The question you need to ask yourself is why we have Super Delegates. If the pledged delegate winner is automatically the winner, what reason is there for Super Delegates? The answer is obvious--the Super Delegates only possible function is to override the winner of the pledged delegates.


by bouvougan on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:00:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

No we don't.

We chose our nominee based on their delegates total. That total is consist out of their pledged and super delegate count.

Both have equal status at the convention and officially their only only differce is how they gain their credentionals.

Obama is leading both with pledged and super delegates and will be our nominee because we will win more then half of all pledged and super delegates.

Winning half of pledged delegates is a sure sign of having it in the bag but has no official status what so ever according to the rules.

Again, I champion the popular vote along side the pledged delegate metric as an indicator who we democrats want as our nominee. Both show that Senator Obama is the preffered choice.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:03:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

Aren't you tired of crying racist to manipulate your point?

Its tired. Really.


by devoted1 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:17:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

Compared to the constant cries of sexism here, I'd call it pretty refreshing.


by leftneck on Thu May 22, 2008 at 02:59:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

Name a presidential primary where the popular vote decided the outcome. I know, Hillary is special and she requires new rules.


by kitebro on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:55:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

Each and every one of them? Just like all of them were also won by pledged delegate count.

There has never been a single nominee that didn't win the pledged, the popular vote and the supers.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:01:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

That's a disingenuous response.

It's like saying they won because they had two feet, also a condition met by every previous winner.

It may be true that every previous winner had the higher popular vote, but that's not why they won, because the race isn't based on that.


by forethought on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:38:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

True, the race is won bij earning the most delegates. not half the pledged, or the popular vote. But please think about the total conversation appropriate here.

"The pledged delegate count is the one legitimate measure." Sez who?
Name a presidential primary where the popular vote decided the outcome. I know, Hillary is special and she requires new rules.
Each and every one of them? Just like all of them were also won by pledged delegate count.

There has never been a single nominee that didn't win the pledged, the popular vote and the supers.

The point here is that there are two equally valid metrics for deciding who has the support of the populace. And that the popular vote has been as relevant as the pledged delegates.

I could have said so more elegant but I thought that is clear enough that I thought the popular and the pledged delegate metric are both unofficial and good predictors of the popular preference.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:51:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

The delegate count is all that matters. Nothing else does.


by kitebro on Thu May 22, 2008 at 01:29:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

Depends if the candidate just wants to win the nomination or also wants to actually become president.

I'd like to think Obama want to actually win the job.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 02:18:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

He will. He knows how to campaign. Hillary doesn't. She could cry about different metrics after the general. It wouldn't help then, either.


by kitebro on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:34:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

But they're not (none / 0)

"equally valid."  I'll give two good reasons:

1. Pledged delegate count is directly 80% of the actual thing that decides the nomination.  In fact, if you get enough, you don't even need any of the rest, and PDs can do it all on their own.  It doesn't matter how many popular votes you get -- how many delegates are assigned as a result of that is the only thing that matters.

2. As we well know, "one popular vote" is by no means the same thing in terms of delegates, by design.  Not to mention there's contention on how even to count "popular votes."  That gives a high measure to the dubiousness of its validity.

Frankly, the superdelegates can choose however they want, as pretty much everyone's agreed.  And anyone who thinks the narrow "popular vote" metric that's been pushed on some weeks by the Clinton campaign is going to drive their choice is really not in tune with reality.  The thing that bothers me is that the more and harder this is pushed, the more that Senator Clinton is instilling an idea that Obama's victory will be in some way illegitimate, and that that feeling will carry on past whenever it is she concedes and endorses, weakening the eventual ticket.


by Rorgg on Thu May 22, 2008 at 03:19:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (2.00 / 1)

There has never been a single nominee that didn't win the pledged, the popular vote and the supers.

Adlai Stevenson.  Both in 1952 and 1956 Estes Kefauver won the popular vote.  (And Kefauver would have been a far superior nominee.)


Read Brian's Utah Weblog
by Brian Watkins on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:52:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

While still under the party boss system. Almost as different a system possible. Of course, you're right, I should have qualified that I meant since the nomination chance that went in effect in '72 and  national campaigns started.

But good catch.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 02:15:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

Ah,, the rules of the DNC, I think that's who. Listen, these are the rules everybody agreed upon and I tell you what, what turned a ton of HRC people off is this total, aka Bosnia tale type flip flop HRC has on this Fla/Mich mess. No doubt, if HRC and her camp were to say: "no Fla and Mich should not count, we all agreed to that, I understand if they did I'd be in a bette position but it's not honorable." Imagine how much more popular she'd be.


by Roberto on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:31:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

"Ah,, the rules of the DNC, I think that's who"

Well, you think wrong. The rules of the DNC say that the pledged delegates vote at the convention and so do the super delegates. It is the TOTAL of the two groups that decides the nominee.

This has nothing to do with anything Clinton said or didn't say, it doesn't have anything to do with how popular either candidate is, it only has to do with counting the TOTAL of the pledged and super delegates at the convention.


No way. No how. No McCain. . . . . . If you can ship a job to Bangalore India, you can ship a job to Flint Michigan.
by NJ Liberal on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:58:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

dude your arguing with yourself I voted for HIllary, however it is a fact that if Obama is denied the nomination the African American Community WILL NOT VOTE FOR HER AND WE WILL LOSE. This is a fact, so we should just quit the crap, let the primary season play out and then back Obama.


by Roberto on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:16:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Really? (none / 0)

Roberto speaks for the AA community? From where do you get your facts?


No way. No how. No McCain. . . . . . If you can ship a job to Bangalore India, you can ship a job to Flint Michigan.
by NJ Liberal on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:55:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

AHHHHH, but what you're forgetting is that, if Hillary Clinton is denied the nomination, ALL 30 of the posters at No Quarter will not vote for Obama, and THEN ... we will .... still win.  :-)

Unless the super duper double top secret Michelle Obama "whitey" tape comes out, then LOOK OUT.... Obama will have to explain.... what ...  that his wife once said some things in a fit of passion based on her experiences in the world ... which roughly correspond to what likely all 30 of the posters at No Quarter have said about black people at times in their own pasts.  :-)

Some things that show a somewhat distorted perspective of the workd based on our perceptions and experiences in it.  Hmmm, just like all those folks who are taking all the misogyny and hardball politics of the Dem primary so personally, projecting onto Obama,  and will throw a hissy fit by voting McCain in the election....  interesting.


by funknjunk on Thu May 22, 2008 at 01:06:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (2.00 / 1)

Clinton says she won it while she didn't. So yes, her version is clearly illigitimate. And I don't care what she beliefs as I'm supporting Obama.

But blankly stated that the popular vote metric is illigitimate in an election while the pledged delegate count is the one legitimate measure without anything to back it up is without a doubt beyond silly.

Right now your point is: the pledged delegates are the legitimate metric because I say so.

Reality doesn't work that way.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:21:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

No, I think the pledged delegates are a valid metric because

(a) it is the only metric consistent across all primaries and caucuses (the problem with the popular vote argument)

(b) I like Obama more than Clinton ;)


John McCain is surprisingly bad for this country
by minnesotaryan on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:37:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

Thats the reason I want the nominee to win in both categories.

Delegates are more fixed metric with an more accurate count but feature several distortions like awards for late contests, a bias for certain areas over the other, and a large rounding error because they're awarded per district instead state wide.

The popular vote is a more accurate and direct expression of the popular sentiment but features distortion because of the caucus and primary difference and has an uncertaincy factor based upon the fact that we have to make an educated guess for several contests didn't hold tallies and one that didn't have a major candidate on the rolls.

Combine both and they average out perfectly.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:52:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a delegate race (none / 0)

missed the first sentence:

I actually agree on point A.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:53:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

This is a nomination, not an election (none / 0)

The problem with using the popular vote as an argument is that different states are selecting delegates by different means.  You can't add caucus results to primary results and simply pretend they share a common denominator in the whole 'will of the people' metric.  Sure, Clinton would run a closer race in many of those caucus states if they had been primaries, but Obama would likely still have won most of them, and the larger turn-out numbers could mean he would just be farther ahead in the popular vote totals.  We have no way of knowing for certain.

The whole point of selecting delegates is that they provide the conversion factor between primary/caucus votes and the 'will of the people' for each state.  All sorts of adjustments are made for the state's position in the schedule, their impact in the general election, and various local factors.  You can certainly argue that the current system is overly complicated and needs to be reformed, but pretending that you can just add up the numbers and get a 'popular vote total' that somehow maps well to 'the will of the people' is just silly.  Heck, I'm not even sure the delegate count does that, but it probably gets closer and it at least falls under the currently accepted rules.

Peace


by protothad on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:20:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This is a nomination, not an election (2.00 / 1)

Actually while I think it's possible that if the caucusses would have been closer in percentage if they had been primaries I think it's clear that the total amount of votes would have increased enough to make sure Obama had a stable vote lead compared to now or even increased his advantage.

So while the different system do faul up the count, it seems clear that the winner of the popular vote would remain senator Obama.

And I personally belief that those adjustments (outside rewarding delegates on how many total democrats the state has) in delegate count are good for the representation of states towards the convention and having say in how the party is run they do polute the popular preference. A delegate can represent a vast difference amount of people all across the board.

I'm not arguing for using the one over the other, I'm arguing that both are valid and that both should be used to gage popular support. Personal preference for a candidate doesn't come into it as they both point to the same candidate.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:02:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Heres some mojo... (none / 0)

just for debating your point in a rational and civil manner.  :)

Peace


by protothad on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:23:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Show me the DNC rule that says that (none / 0)

the popular vote is relevant.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:45:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Show me the DNC rule that says that (none / 0)

The popular vote is not relevant because a few caucus states(like Iowa and Nevada .. plus I believe 2 others), never put out their vote totals(only percentages).  So how do you count popular votes when those states are missing?


John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:48:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Show me the DNC rule that says that (none / 0)

Something no one ever wants to respond too.


by Lit Up on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:16:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Show me the DNC rule that says that (none / 0)

I've anwered this several times already.

You simply make an estimate for those states. As long as a candidate has a lead outside any reasonable margin of error he has won the popular vote. If not then the metric doesn't work and you simply rely solely on the pledged delegate metric.

senator Obama is leading the popular vote count outside any reasonable margin of error, thus the metric is good indicator alongside the pledged delegates metric.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:08:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Show me the DNC rule that says that (2.00 / 1)

But you haven't made this case: who makes the estimate?

Hillary, citing the popular vote, does not include an estimate from the caucus states.  THAT, to me, makes it invalid.  You COULD reasonably measure it, but until we have the agreed-upon official (I do trust you on this, Ernst) and HRC abandons the loony assertion that no estimate should be included, discussing the popular vote seems absolutely meaningless.  And if it comes down to a close race, I think you would agree the metric is not worthy.


by niksder on Thu May 22, 2008 at 02:06:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Show me the DNC rule that says that (none / 0)

There is none, just like there is no rule that the pledged delegates are relevant.

That's why I'm arguing that both are equal and that the nominee should win both ideally.

And as far as I know Obama is doing just that.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:04:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Show me the DNC rule that says that (none / 0)

Well I see a lot about delegates in the DNC rules but nothing about the popular vote so I'm guessing the DNC disagrees with you.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:14:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Show me the DNC rule that says that (none / 0)

please reread al my comments. I'm arguing for using both.

First of all we are talking about pledged delegates not all delegates.

second if there are rules about winning hald of the pledged delegates being the representative metric of popular support for a presidental more then popular votes please cite that rule.

If not, I'll guess those rules are about other subjects regarding pledged delegates.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:15:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 2)

Well the majority of pledge delegates is relevant because some superdelegates have said they would vote for the winner of the pledge delegates. This includes Pelosi and Carter.

But the number to reach to get the majority of the pledge delegates could obviously change on may 31.


by Theis on Thu May 22, 2008 at 06:49:47 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 1)

It's true that the Obama's campaign of winning the majority of pledged delegates is, in the end, just a talking point being pushed to the superdelegates. However, it is at least grounded in the reality that the nominee will be chosen by delegates, not who won which states or who has the lead in the popular vote in states that held primaries.
Until the DNC (hopefully by 2008) puts together a more logical way of choosing a candidate, it is what it is. The superdelegates will choose the nominee...no matter what either campaign says, the choice will ultimately not be made by the will of the people.
by GrahamCracker on Thu May 22, 2008 at 06:50:08 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

I just can't get over this twisted argument by the Clintonistas. Yesterday in Florida Hillary made her demand for counting every vote from Fla and MI to be akin to the Civil rights movement to name just one of several pious comparisons. Then, THEN She and her supporters have the nerve to argue the process is not supposed to honor those voter's votes! The pledged delegates are the people who were chosen by the voters in Caucuses and State primaries. So I can place little stock in this idea coming from the Clinton camp that earning a MAJORITY of Pledged delegate is JUST spin from the Obama camp. Either Votes count or they DON'T. You can't have it both ways guys. Geeesh


by eddieb on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:52:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the will of the people (none / 0)

You say "the choice will ultimately not be made by the will of the people". That statement will only come true if the super delegates listen to Hillary's argument. If the SDs respect the fact that Obama has the Majority of pledged Delegates then they will be following the will of the voters. This is why the fact that Obama has that majority is why it is more than spin aimed at the supers.


by eddieb on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:24:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Posterity (2.00 / 1)

In the event that something goes wrong with the general election, on the bright side at least people who were objective about Hillary's edge in electability will be vindicated.  

I hate GOP principles.  I hated watching the 2004 elections.  It is going to burn me up inside so much when the polls close and they call Florida for McCain early.  Same for Ohio.  And then I'll sit there hoping that the perfect chain of Western states doesn't break and that every single nailbiter blue state turns out exactly as we need it: Wisconsin (Grrr), Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania.


Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.
by BPK80 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 06:53:54 AM EST

Yup, you're right... (2.00 / 2)

Polls show her up by one in Ohio, him down by one.  Clearly, she's more electable in Ohio.  And, all the Clinton forces are also right...she's more electable...the  media loves her, she's handled her money wisely, and she came in second in a race designed to put the inevitable candidate in. And there isn't one thing the Republicans are going to throw at Hillary in the General Election...they adore her and she's immune to scandal.  She's never been the focus of any hatred by the right and her negatives hover around a low 50%.

Look, I've always thought the fact that she was a lightning rod for the other side was one of the good things about her, one of the things which drew me to her...

BUT, this electability notion is such a crock.

And think about this, if he does lose on Election Day are you going to be smug that your candidate and her supporters helped tear him down so we could have 4 more years of the same.


by thurst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:50:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Ok, rereading your post... (none / 0)

My response was a bit harsh...

The key word I objected to was objective...your objective is my deluded (and vice versa, i suppose :))


by thurst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:52:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ok, rereading your post... (none / 0)

Ok, thanks for the clarification.

My goal is to see a Democrat win, not to see Obama lose.  


Lifelong Democrat, civil rights advocate, former volunteer for Dem candidates. Now Independent.
by BPK80 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:44:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary, the Incredible Shrinking Candidate (none / 0)

Hillary is $19 million in debt, hopelessly behind and further damaging the party's chances in November, but hey this is all about Hillary.


It's time to restore balance and fairness to our economy,... It's time to stop giving tax cuts to corporations that ship jobs overseas... - Barack Obama
by Lefty Coaster on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:50:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary, the Incredible Shrinking Candidate (none / 0)

I'm sorry, but who went negative with the "Bradley Effect" to explain their loss in New Hampshire?


by usedmeat on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:08:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary, the Incredible Shrinking Candidate (none / 0)

Obama never said he lost because of the Bradley Effect. Some journalists felt so but he never said that himself.


by sweet potato pie on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:27:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electability (2.00 / 1)

Is a tricky argument, mostly because there's very little evidence anyone can cite that has any real sway. This far out in 2004, Kerry looked pretty darn electable. Dukakis looked like a sure winner for a good portion of 1988 too.

I happen to believe that either Obama or Clinton would destroy McCain this year (which is why they both are fighting so hard to secure the nomination), but that remains to be seen. Also, if either loses, it's not probably--or even likely--that the other would have won.


by Clancy on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:34:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electability (none / 0)

You're right.  I'll take my cue from Howard Wolfson: "This is a race for delegates."  

I'm still confused, however, as to why the Obama campaign insists on counting delegates as if they mean something.


by niksder on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:00:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electability (none / 0)

Harold Ickes also used to think this was about delegates.  Ask me how I know that.  How can I read Harold Ickes' mind from say, Feb. 1.  Brilliance?  Yes.

And this.

"This is very much a race for delegates at this point," said Ickes...

Feb 1, Financial Express.

So, just a little bit ago when things looked different, it was all about the delegates and not absurd at all.

btw, I bet your Google works just as well as mine.


by niksder on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:12:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It's still a race for delegates (none / 0)

The electability and popular vote arguments offered by Clinton, however debatable, are part of an effort to sway delegates (super and pledged) to support her. In the end, the only thing that will matter is how a majority of all the delegates vote in Denver. As of now, the only thing that is likely to "end" this before Denver is if a clear majority of delegates pick one candidate over the other. It's much more likely that Obama will be the one, but Clinton is still (technically) viable.

Personally, I think we all need to calm down on this issue. Obama supporters (me included) need to be less impatient. Clinton supporters can still be good advocates for their cause(s) but might want to dial back the aggression. It isn't nearly as dire as some want to believe. The republic and the party are not going to fall over this . . . at worst we'll have some bruised egos and broken hearts. More than likely, in 2-3 weeks, this whole thing will be over. It would be great if we could get there still believing that we're among friends.


by Clancy on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:54:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Electability (none / 0)

Clancy - completely agree.  You left out that Bill Clinton was running dead last at this point in 1992 behind whack job Ross Perot.

GE polls at this point mean crap.  I don't even start paying attention to them until after Labor Day.


by jmnyc on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:30:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Too late (none / 0)

She's undermined the process so if he loses she'll get blamed.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:46:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 3)

Aside from the total delegate count, there is no metric more relevant than the pledged delegate count.


by dogooder on Thu May 22, 2008 at 06:58:00 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 3)

Let's see... pledged delegates -- count for something according to the rules, and Obama has been consistent about pushing this metric forward from the start.

Popular vote -- doesn't count for anything, and Clinton only switched to this metric after she had failed at every single other one out there.

So basically, you don't have a leg to stand on.


by Aris Katsaris on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:03:45 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (none / 0)

I'm tired of all the talk of the popular vote.

The popular vote metric (no matter which one you choose) matter if and only if super delegates buy in to the logic behind it.

And the way super delegates have been endorsing in the last 3 months suggest that if they buy in to the logic behind the popular vote argument, they believe Obama leads and will be the nominee.


by Theis on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:16:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular Vote Logic (none / 0)

The same could be--and was--said for having a majority of the pledged delegates . . . which I think was the point of the post. Both are, of themselves, meaningless, as neither will get someone the nomination. What matters is how effective these talking points are at swaying the remaining supers. The pledged delegate lead/majority just happens to mean that Obama needs to sway fewer superdelegates in order to win the nomination.

I have many problems with Clinton's claims about the popular vote, and the seating of MI & FL based on the January votes, but that doesn't mean that her arguments are totally devoid of logic or moral suasion.


by Clancy on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:58:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular Vote Logic (none / 0)

It would help her cause if the popular vote could actually be known.  It can't.  Doesn't exist.  


by niksder on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:27:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular Vote Logic (none / 0)

That is, a complete and accurate measure of the popular vote cannot be known.  Which generally would make such a metric invalid.


by niksder on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:28:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular Vote Logic (none / 0)

Not true.

It only needs a to be accurate enough to differenciate between the candidates. If it's accurate up till a few tenthousand voters it's accurate enough to project who won the metric if the difference is a hundred thousand voters or so.

It's like saying that you can't declare a winner in a race without perfect time measurement even though one candidate has lapped the other.

Even though we don't know the precise number we do know that Obama has confortable lead with a couple hundred thousand voters.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:09:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular Vote Logic (none / 0)

Got it.  But isn't there some serious concern with  some caucus states?  How would you divine their popular votes?  HRC's camp says just leave them out.  Doesn't make sense to me.  So if the number doesn't have to be accurate, we'd all have to agree (before the primary/caucus season) how to measure that.  Otherwise it seems chaotic, which could be preferable for a particular team if they wanted the supers to overturn the pledged.


by niksder on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:28:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular Vote Logic (none / 0)

I agree with you that the caucuses should be represented. But it certainly problematic.

Luckily we caught a break here.

The Caucuses states have a strong slant towards Obama, had they been primaries or otherwise larger turn out Obama's popular vote lead whould've only increased.

But still they illustrate perfectly why there certainly is wisdom in using the pledged delegate and popular vote metric along side each other.

This isn't an either/or situation.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:23:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular Vote Logic (none / 0)

okay...

So the candidate with the concrete lead in elected delagates should take a back seat to the candidate with a wish-washy pseudo-lead in a category that can't quite be quantified to anyone's satisfaction?


by Lit Up on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:33:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular Vote Logic (none / 0)

No, for two reasons. First I'm arguing we should use both.

Second, their both the same candidate.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:17:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular Vote Logic (none / 0)

The same could be--and was--said for having a majority of the pledged delegates

...except for the key point that pledged delegates are the only consistent metric across all primary and caucus contests.  I certainly concede that pledged delegates aren't the be all and end all of the primary process, but it is the best way to judge the sum total outcome of the contests.  Had every state held a primary that released it's vote totals, then the popular vote would probably be the most solid metric, but they didn't.

In the end, of course, popular vote and pledged delegates both do mean nothing, but that doesn't mean one isn't a more meaningful metric than the other.


John McCain is surprisingly bad for this country
by minnesotaryan on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:43:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular Vote Logic (none / 0)

"Had every state held a primary that released it's vote totals, then the popular vote would probably be the most solid metric, but they didn't."

I disagree because there's a mixture of caucuses, closed primaries, and open primaries that makes the whole thing confusing.  Popular vote in the general makes sense because all of the states vote in the exact same way.


Beat McCain!
by thezzyzx on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:03:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Popular Vote Logic (none / 0)

minnesotaryan - I actually agree with you on pledged delegates being a fairer metric, I just wanted to point out that this post by Todd wasn't necessarily a value judgment towards one metric or another, simply that they were both talking points, as neither the popular vote nor the pledge delegate majority will secure the nomination (this year). That the latter is a stronger argument, and the former has no formal sanction in the process--well, you'll get no argument from me on either.


by Clancy on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:08:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Vindication (2.00 / 5)

 If Obama loses the General Election, it won't be vindication, but it very well may be the product of vindictiveness. Not the same thing.


by xdem on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:03:53 AM EST

Re: Vindication (2.00 / 1)

Well said...


McCain/Palin... even scarier than Bush/Cheney... and that's saying something!
by JenKinFLA on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:22:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 4)

Todd, I think it's a lot more than psychological.  If either Clinton or Obama were ahead in the pledged delegate count and the superdelegates went in the opposite direction without an extremely good reason for doing so, this would be a serious blow to the party and would be perceived by a large block of our base as a major betrayal.  

For blacks, having their first national viable candidate turned out despite winning the pledged delegate count, would turn them away from supporting us for a generation.  

For women, having our first national candidate be turned away would push some of us out of the party.

The Supers are technically free to vote for whomever they like, but those choices do not come without consequences and the damage they could do the party is major.  This, too, is psychological, but that doesn't make it not real.


I'm only a click away
by juliewolf on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:08:20 AM EST

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Talking Point (2.00 / 0)

If women turned away from the party because their first national candidate lost fair and square in an incredibly close race, and therefore handed the presidency to John McCain, who will likely appoint three more John Roberts' type justices, then they have truly earned the title "hysterical". Feminism isn't about voting with your uterus, it is about equal treatment. How more equal can you get than fighting your opponent to a practical tie? I've heard the argument that a more qualified woman is being passed over for a less qualified man, but the only qualification that matters is who the voters want. They are not interviewing for a job; they are running for office.
I am appalled that women that call themselves feminists would vote for a man that called his wife a cunt in front of hundreds of people and explained it away as "having been a long day"; the man who will set their rights back a generation rather than rally behind the man that will champion their cause more than any other. It is obtuse. If women will allow bruised feelings to affect their judgment that badly, then maybe they really aren't cut out for politics, and we are right in withholding the nomination from a woman just because she is a woman.  
John McCain Hates Poor People
by pneuma on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:10:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

52% of the Presidents since 1919 SHOULD HAVE BEEN (none / 0)

Women..

Thats not a pleasant argument, but its a legally valid one, IF this is an affirmative action argument.

By rights, HALF of the Presidents since 1919 SHOULD have been women.

So how about it!?

(BTW, I'm male.. )


http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Ep isode.aspx?sched=1242
Confused by the 'Bailout' Lies?
Listen to NPR's The Giant Pool of Money
by architek on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:13:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hardly just a talking point (2.00 / 6)

If at the beginning of this campaign Hillary Clinton had said that on Feb 6th she would have the majority of pledged delegates and thus be the winner, nobody would have batted an eye and all other candidates would have been expected to drop out at that point.

What Obama's winning the pledged delegates means is this. He can no longer lose this nomination legitimately. The superdelegates would have to take it from him. They would have to get up at the convention and say, "Congratulations first African-American candidate in history to win the most delegates in the primary election, but we, the party elders, have decided to give the nomination to Hillary." I'd say that would be significant, and consequently this milestone is not only important, but it's a game ender for Hillary.


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:10:16 AM EST

Tthat would be a legitimate thing to do if.. (none / 0)

she is winning the popular vote...or if she is obviously more electable..


http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Ep isode.aspx?sched=1242
Confused by the 'Bailout' Lies?
Listen to NPR's The Giant Pool of Money
by architek on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:21:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The problem for Clinton (2.00 / 3)

Is that Obama actually HAS a majority of pledged delegates, whereas she does not have a majority of the popular votes.

So, while Obama is telling the truth, Clinton is lying.


John McCain, maverick
by lojasmo on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:22:10 AM EST

Re: The problem for Clinton (2.00 / 1)

And that's the whole point.

I'm actually sick to my stomach to each and every commenter that keeps dissing the popular vote. I actually think the popular vote is extremely important and that Obama has won it.

Pushback should happen at the false statements from Clinton, not at the premise that the popular vote doesn't count. Sometimes I feel it's like 2000 again. But now with Democrats doing their best to fuck the democrats over.

Obama is winning the popular vote, the plegded delegates and the super delegates. Why do our best to ridicule a metric that actually works in his favor?


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:49:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The problem for Clinton (none / 0)

Damn. Good point, that.